Olympic Forecasts

Using an econometric model of the recent editions of the Olympic Summer Games we publish our forecast of the Rio de Janeiro 2016 medal tally in a paper published in Economisch Statistische Berichten on July 9, 2016. We use data on World Championship results of all events the year before the Summer Games. We also include a home advantage effect of organizing countries. The Dutch team is expected to win 24 medals: 8 gold, 9 silver, and 7 bronze. The Top-30 medal table is available here.

Since 2002 Elmer Sterken and I publish forecasts of the Olympic medal tallies in Economisch Statistische Berichten (in Dutch). We evaluate our forecasts by comparing rank correlation coefficients and mean squared errors of the forecasts with other predictions. Evaluations of our earlier Olympic medal predictions: 2008 Olympics; 2010 Olympics; 2012 Olympics; 2014 Olympics; 2016 Olympics.

Publications about Olympic medal predictions (in Dutch)
  • Kate, F. ten, G.H. Kuper and E. Sterken (2016), "Wie zijn de winnaars in Rio de Janeiro?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 101, No. 4739, 14 juli 2016, pp. 526-527.
  • Kate, F. ten, G.H. Kuper and E. Sterken (2014), "De winnaars van Sotsji," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 99, No. 4677, 24 January 2014, pp. 55-57.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2012), "De winnaars van de Olympische Zomerspelen van Londen," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 97, No. 4639/40, 6 July 2012, pp. 452-454
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2010), "Wie er gaan winnen in Vancouver," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 95, No. 4577, 22 January 2010, pp. 54-55.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2008), "De winnaars van Beijing," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 93, No. 4540, 25 July 2008, pp. 458-459.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2006), "Wie gaan er winnen in Turijn?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 91, No. 4478, 27 January 2006, pp. 41-42.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2004), "Wie gaan er winnen in Athene?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 89, No. 4439, 6 August 2004, pp. 375-377.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2002), "Wie gaat er winnen in Salt Lake City?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 87, No. 4346, 8 Februari 2002, pp. 110-111.
Publications about medal predictions (in English)
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2012), "Forecasts and Evaluation of the 2011 Pan American Games," EconoQuantum, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 45-60.
  • Sterken, E. and G.H. Kuper (2011), "Determinants of Participation and Success at the Earlier Modern Olympic Games," Journal of Olympic History, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 20-29.
  • Sterken, E. and G.H. Kuper (2003), "Participation and Performance at the Olympic Summer Games," Oikonomia & Athlitismos (Economy and Sports), Vol. 3, pp. 13-20.

Other publications about Sports
  • Kuper, G.H., G. Sierksma and F.C.R. Spieksma (2016), "Tennisselectie Olympische Spelen Rio 2016, rankings als basis voor selectieprocedures," STAtOR, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 7-12.
  • Kuper, G.H., G. Sierksma, and F.C.R. Spieksma, "Using Tennis Rankings to Predict Performance in Upcoming Tournaments," SOM Research Report, No. 14034-EEF, University of Groningen
  • Kamst, R., G.H. Kuper, G. Sierksma, and B.G. Talsma (2012), "Inner-Outer Lane Advantage in Olympic 1000 Meter Speed Skating," Journal of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 232, No. 3, pp. 293-307.
  • Kamst, R, G.H. Kuper and G. Sierksma (2010), "The Olympic 500 Meter Speed Skating: The Inner-Outer Lane Difference," Statistica Neerlandica, Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 448-459.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2008), "Do Skin Suits Affect Average Skating Speed?," Sports Technology, Vol. 1, No. 4-5, pp. 189-195.
  • Sterken, E. and G.H. Kuper (2007), "Modelling Limits in Cycling," Proceedings of the first International Conference on Mathematics in Sport, D. Percy, P. Scarf and C. Robinson (eds.), The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, pp. 221-226.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2007), "Modelling the Development of World Records in Running," in Statistical Thinking in Sports, J. Albert and R.H. Koning (eds.), pp. 7-31, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2006), "Snelle Pakken," IJS, Vol. 1, No. 2, February 2006, pp. 20-22.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2005), "De ultieme wereldrecords," Runner's World.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2003), "Endurance in Speed Skating: Development of World Records," European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 148, No. 2, pp. 293-301.