Olympic Forecasts

WHO IS GOING TO WIN IN VANCOUVER?

Using an econometric model of the recent editions of the Olympic Winter Games we present our forecast of the Vancouver 2010 medal tally (the paper is published in Economisch Statistische Berichten). The Dutch team is expected to win 11 medals: 4 gold, 4 silver, and 3 bronze. Our forecasts are based on data of the last four editions: Lillehammer, Nagano, Salt Lake City, and Turin. We use data on participation, economic conditions, demography, and World Championship results of all events the year before the Winter Games. You can download our full prediction for 23 countries.

We evaluated the forecasts of Sports Illustrated, USA Today, The Associated Press, Barra, Johnson and ourselves. We present rank correlations and squared errors of the forecasts to realizations. See the evaluation file.

Since 2001 Elmer Sterken and I publish forecasts of the Olympic medal tallies in Economisch Statistische Berichten (in Dutch). More information is available on Elmer's homepage.

Publications about Sports
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2010), "Wie er gaan winnen in Vancouver," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 95, No. 4577, 22 January 2010, pp. 54-55.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2008), "Do Skin Suits Affect Average Skating Speed?," Sports Technology, Vol. 1, No. 4-5, pp. 189-195.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2008), "De winnaars van Beijing," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 93, No. 4540, 25 July 2008, pp. 458-459.
  • Sterken, E. and G.H. Kuper (2007), "Modelling Limits in Cycling," Proceedings of the first International Conference on Mathematics in Sport, D. Percy, P. Scarf and C. Robinson (eds.), The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, pp. 221-226.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2007), "Modelling the Development of World Records in Running," in Statistical Thinking in Sports, J. Albert and R.H. Koning (eds.), pp. 7-31, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2006), "Snelle Pakken," IJS, Vol. 1, No. 2, February 2006, pp. 20-22.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2006), "Wie gaan er winnen in Turijn?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 91, No. 4478, 27 January 2006, pp. 41-42.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2005), "De ultieme wereldrecords," Runner's World.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2004), "Wie gaan er winnen in Athene?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 89, No. 4439, 6 August 2004, pp. 375-377.
  • Sterken, E. and G.H. Kuper (2003), "Participation and Performance at the Olympic Summer Games," Oikonomia & Athlitismos (Economy and Sports), Vol. 3, pp. 13-20.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2003), "Endurance in Speed Skating: Development of World Records," European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 148, No. 2, pp. 293-301.
  • Kuper, G.H. and E. Sterken (2002), "Wie gaat er winnen in Salt Lake City?," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 87, No. 4346, Februari 8, 2002, pp. 110-111.